Since the mobilization, domestic dissatisfaction has grown, while some wishes to escalate the war further. These moves could very well squeeze Russian oil and natural gas out of the market in the future. Central Asian countries have also discussed further cooperation with Europe in energy issues. As Europeans deepen their collaboration with Azerbaijan, the reliance on Russia will keep shrinking. As Europe recovers from the initial shocks in the market and the natural gas price has gone down significantly, Russia’s energy leverage has become much less powerful. Sanctions have delivered a significant blow to Russians, and the banks also reported substantial losses in the year’s first half. Kremin does not have the economic leverage it initially expected. Militarily, Russia has no advantage in delivering any favorable result. Russia had to make a critical retreat in East Ukraine Ukrainians attacked the Crimean bridge and cut down transportation Kherson is now facing Ukraine attacks, and Russia cannot effectively defend it. The situation did not improve for Russia after the mobilization. Calling for mobilization further signaled Russia’s military incompetency. Russia has suffered significant losses in warfare. Russia is in a much-weakened position compared to April or even June negotiation. Meanwhile, Kremlin does not have sufficient bargaining chips for any peace talks. This blatant lie has wiped out any last remaining credit for Moscow. Furthermore, Russia completely ignored its previous statement of no intention to expand in Ukraine. Ukrainians even shut down any suggestion of peace talks. The Kyiv government has vowed to defend those territories and clearly stated its unwillingness to peace talks with Russia. Russia still had the door for negotiation open until the secession of East Ukraine. The takeover of Ukrainian territory has permanently shut the door for future talks. Ultimately, the opportunity has slipped from the hands of Moscow. As for the Russian deal with Ukraine, Moscow’s greediness stood in the way as President Putin found the Kyiv government’s concession not far enough while wanting to get more from Ukraine. Russia stated that the country was only starting in Ukraine back in July, marking a potential escalation. Meanwhile, Putin’s envoy in Ukraine affairs has also hammered a deal with Ukraine to prevent mass-scale military action. President Macron of France has stated that the negotiation is up to Ukraine to decide.Īt the beginning of the war, Ukraine was willing to make substantial yields in exchange for peace and security guarantees. Ukraine has recently rejected some Democrats’ proposals to initiate peace talks. Yet, throughout the war, Ukraine has acted independently. The Kremlin spokesman has said that any talks with Ukraine should start with Washington, further indicating a lack of sincerity in hosting peace talks. Russia still believes that a bilateral talk with the US or a multi-party negotiation with Europe is the way to peace. It is essential to point out that Russia lacks a basic understanding of the current situation. Russia’s geopolitical situation will remain the same even if peace is established. It also has no bargaining chips to conduct meaningful negotiations. Russia lacks understanding and trust for any future talks. However, compared to the previous effort, Moscow has lost the best timing in negotiating for peace. Foreign Minister Lavrov says Russia is “always ready to listen to our Western colleagues if they make another request to organize a conversation.” Russians are even giving out signals saying the Vatican is interested in facilitating the bilateral talks between Moscow and Washington.ĭespite the question of sincerity, these signs all indicated that after more than eight months of combat, Russia seeks an exit. Recently, the Russian government has expressed interest in starting a negotiation directly with the West.Īt the same time, Moscow also compared the current situation to the Cuban Missile Crisis, warning about the potential danger of escalation. Once again, there are signs indicating this desperation. With the worsening economic situation, mounting political pressure, and abject military failure, Moscow desperately seeks an exit from its current crisis. Russia has been deep in the Ukrainian war quagmire for a long time.
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